Texas Longhorns

0–0 · 0–0 SEC

Way too early

WEEK 3 · 2026

20%

SEC title game

Win the SEC

27%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 8.9

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-3 job: beat UTSA.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3

If Texas wins out: 51% to win the SEC, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 19

UTSA at Texas

Your game. Beat UTSA and your playoff odds are 29%; lose and they drop to 12%.

Texas 86%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Buffalo at Penn State

Buffalo winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Penn State 97%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Utah State at Utah

Utah State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 93%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Georgia at Arkansas

SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; Arkansas visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Georgia 87%

…

… · ABC

LSU at Ole Miss

LSU visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Ole Miss 83%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

USC at Rutgers

Rutgers winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

USC 82%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

BYU at Colorado State

Colorado State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

BYU 91%

TBD

SAT SEP 19

Florida State at Alabama

Florida State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 88%

48 more games that don't move your needle

Mississippi State at South Carolina

Florida at Auburn

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

Miami at Wake Forest

Troy at Missouri

New Mexico at Oklahoma

Kennesaw State at Tennessee

Kentucky at Texas A&M

NC State at Vanderbilt

Tulane at Kansas State

Northern Illinois at Arizona

Colorado at Northwestern

Miami (OH) at Cincinnati

Bowling Green at Iowa State

Arkansas State at TCU

Georgia State at UCF

Virginia at West Virginia

Houston at Texas Tech

Kansas at Arizona State

North Carolina at Clemson

SMU at Louisville

Stanford at Duke

Virginia Tech at Maryland

Western Kentucky at Indiana

UTEP at Michigan

Akron at Minnesota

Kent State at Ohio State

Purdue at UCLA

Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin

James Madison at San Diego State

Fresno State at San José State

North Texas at Texas State

UConn at Southern Miss

East Carolina at Old Dominion

Florida International at Florida Atlantic

Western Michigan at Rice

Temple at Toledo

UAB at Louisiana

Nevada at Middle Tennessee

Wyoming at Central Michigan

Charlotte at App State

Ball State at Liberty

Ohio at South Alabama

Louisiana Tech at Baylor

Coastal Carolina at Delaware

Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State

Marshall at Missouri State

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.