South Florida Bulls

0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Way too early

WEEK 6 · 2026

62%

American title game

41%

Win the American

24%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 11.6

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-6 job: beat UTSA.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6

If South Florida wins out: 69% to win the American, 56% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves South Florida's path

Your game

TBD

THU OCT 8

South Florida at UTSA

Your game. Beat UTSA and your playoff odds are 30%; lose and they drop to 12%.

South Florida 67%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT OCT 10

James Madison at Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

James Madison 93%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Charlotte at North Texas

American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings.

North Texas 97%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Rice at East Carolina

American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play East Carolina in week 10.

East Carolina 93%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Central Michigan at Ohio

Ohio winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ohio 84%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Tulsa at Navy

Tulsa winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Navy 91%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

UAB at Memphis

American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings; UAB visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Memphis 91%

49 more games that don't move your needle

Southern Miss at Troy

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State

New Mexico State at Florida International

South Alabama at Arkansas State

Sam Houston at Liberty

Missouri State at Western Kentucky

Florida State at Louisville

Washington State at Utah State

Georgia at Alabama

Tennessee at Arkansas

South Carolina at Florida

LSU at Kentucky

Texas A&M at Missouri

Texas at Oklahoma

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Hawai'i at Arizona State

Arizona at West Virginia

UCF at Oklahoma State

Houston at Kansas State

Iowa State at BYU

Kansas at Utah

Duke at Georgia Tech

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Syracuse at Virginia

Virginia Tech at California

Wake Forest at NC State

Illinois at Michigan State

Indiana at Nebraska

Ball State at Northwestern

Maryland at Ohio State

UCLA at Oregon

USC at Penn State

Minnesota at Purdue

Iowa at Washington

Boise State at Fresno State

San Diego State at Oregon State

UConn at Temple

Tulane at Army

Air Force at Northern Illinois

Nevada at UTEP

Wyoming at San José State

Eastern Michigan at Akron

Buffalo at Toledo

Kent State at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Massachusetts

Old Dominion at App State

Coastal Carolina at Marshall

Louisiana at Louisiana Tech

Stanford at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.