South Florida Bulls

0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Way too early

WEEK 1 · 2026

62%

American title game

41%

Win the American

24%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 11.6

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-1 job: beat Florida International.

If South Florida wins out: 69% to win the American, 56% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves South Florida's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Florida International at South Florida

Your game. Beat Florida International and your playoff odds are 25%; lose and they drop to 15%.

South Florida 90%

Just win

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

…

… · ESPN

Miami at Stanford

Stanford winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Miami 92%

Root for Stanford+4.4 pp playoff odds

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Liberty at James Madison

Liberty winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

James Madison 93%

Root for Liberty+4.1 pp playoff odds

TBD

SAT SEP 5

North Texas at Indiana

Indiana winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Indiana 93%

Root for Indiana+2.4 pp playoff odds

…

… · ESPN

SMU at Florida State

Florida State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

SMU 73%

Root for Florida State+1.7 pp playoff odds

…

… · ABC

East Carolina at Alabama

American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play East Carolina in week 10.

Alabama 87%

Root for Alabama+2.4 pp title-game odds

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Washington State at Washington

Washington winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Washington 83%

Root for Washington+1.3 pp playoff odds

42 more games that don't move your needle

Hawai'i at Stanford

Memphis at UNLV

San José State at USC

New Mexico State at Florida State

North Carolina at TCU · ESPN

NC State at Virginia · ESPN

Akron at Wake Forest

Massachusetts at Rutgers

Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Toledo at Michigan State

Fresno State at USC

San José State at Eastern Michigan

Florida Atlantic at Florida

UL Monroe at Mississippi State

UTEP at Oklahoma

Kent State at South Carolina

Texas State at Texas

Missouri State at Texas A&M

Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Boston College at Cincinnati

Oregon State at Houston

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia

Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh

Tulane at Duke

UCLA at California

UAB at Illinois

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Western Michigan at Michigan

Ohio at Nebraska

Ball State at Ohio State

Boise State at Oregon

Marshall at Penn State

Wyoming at Colorado State

Arkansas State at Memphis

Western Kentucky at Nevada

UNLV at Hawai'i

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Sam Houston at Troy

Baylor at Auburn · ABC

Clemson at LSU · ABC

Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC

Notre Dame at Wisconsin

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.