Oklahoma Sooners

0–0 · 0–0 SEC

Way too early

WEEK 1 · 2026

11%

SEC title game

Win the SEC

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 9.3

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-1 job: beat UTEP.

If Oklahoma wins out: 56% to win the SEC, 95% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oklahoma's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 5

UTEP at Oklahoma

Your game. Beat UTEP and your playoff odds are 6%; lose and they drop to 2%.

Oklahoma 97%

Just win

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Marshall at Penn State

Marshall winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Penn State 93%

Root for Marshall+1.4 pp playoff odds

47 more games that don't move your needle

Hawai'i at Stanford

Memphis at UNLV

San José State at USC

New Mexico State at Florida State

North Carolina at TCU · ESPN

NC State at Virginia · ESPN

Akron at Wake Forest

Massachusetts at Rutgers

Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Toledo at Michigan State

Fresno State at USC

San José State at Eastern Michigan

Miami at Stanford · ESPN

Florida Atlantic at Florida

UL Monroe at Mississippi State

Kent State at South Carolina

Texas State at Texas

Missouri State at Texas A&M

Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Boston College at Cincinnati

Oregon State at Houston

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia

Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh

Tulane at Duke

UCLA at California

UAB at Illinois

North Texas at Indiana

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Western Michigan at Michigan

Ohio at Nebraska

Ball State at Ohio State

Boise State at Oregon

Washington State at Washington

Wyoming at Colorado State

Arkansas State at Memphis

Florida International at South Florida

Western Kentucky at Nevada

UNLV at Hawai'i

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Liberty at James Madison

Sam Houston at Troy

East Carolina at Alabama · ABC

Baylor at Auburn · ABC

Clemson at LSU · ABC

Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC

Notre Dame at Wisconsin

SMU at Florida State · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.