🏈 Fan Watch

#13Utah Utes

7–2 · 4–2 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
The Week 12 recap

Utah beat Baylor. Playoff odds moved from 46% to 43%.

Your game

Utah at Baylor
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ESPN2
playoff chanceEntering46%Win55%Loss15%
Utah
Utah 79%Baylor 21%
Baylor
Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Utah wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Rooted for
TCU
at
BYU
Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 15.1-point title-game boost

BYU won instead, so Utah did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if TCU won18% with the other result15-point differenceUtah Big 12 title-game chance
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FOX
Impact 2
Rooted for
UCF
at
Texas Tech
Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 12.7-point title-game boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Utah did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if UCF won23% with the other result13-point differenceUtah Big 12 title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.2-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Utah did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection52% if Pittsburgh won46% with the other result6.2-point differenceUtah playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.4-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Utah did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Florida won46% with the other result5.4-point differenceUtah playoff chance
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ESPNU
Impact 5
Rooted for
Kansas State
at
Oklahoma State
Final · Kansas State 14–6 Oklahoma StateWish granted ✓
Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

Kansas State won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 13 game against Utah.

Entering-week projection46% if Kansas State won43% with the other result2.9-point differenceUtah playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 6
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Texas A&M
Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Utah did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if South Carolina won46% with the other result2.8-point differenceUtah playoff chance
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ESPN+
Impact 7
UTEP
at
Rooted for
Missouri State
Final · UTEP 24–38 Missouri StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Missouri State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Utah's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection47% if Missouri State won45% with the other result1.8-point differenceUtah playoff chance
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FS1
Impact 8
Rooted for
Arizona
at
Cincinnati
Final · Arizona 30–24 CincinnatiWish granted ✓
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Cincinnati lost again, helping keep them behind Utah.

Entering-week projection47% if Arizona won46% with the other result1.3-point differenceUtah playoff chance
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truTV
Impact 9
West Virginia
at
Rooted for
Arizona State
Final · West Virginia 23–25 Arizona StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

West Virginia lost, improving Utah's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection24% if Arizona State won22% with the other result1.9-point differenceUtah Big 12 title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
The rooting list was:Utah, then TCU, UCF, Pittsburgh, Florida, Kansas State, South Carolina, Missouri State, Arizona, Arizona State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.