๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Duke Blue Devils

5โ€“4 ยท 4โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Duke lost to Virginia. Playoff odds moved from 12% to 1%.

Your game

Virginia at Duke
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ACC title-game chanceEntering56%Win77%Loss8%
Virginia
Virginia 30%Duke 70%
Duke
Final ยท Virginia 34โ€“17 DukeWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Duke wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Clemson
at
Louisville
Final ยท Clemson 20โ€“19 LouisvilleWish granted โœ“
Projected 8.2-point title-game boost

Louisville lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection61% if Clemson won53% with the other result8.2-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
Boston College
Final ยท Georgia Tech 36โ€“34 Boston CollegeWent the other way โœ—
Projected 8.1-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Boston College won54% with the other result8.1-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
NC State
at
Miami
Final ยท NC State 7โ€“41 MiamiWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.2-point title-game boost

Miami won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if NC State won55% with the other result5.2-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
App State
at
James Madison
Final ยท App State 10โ€“58 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if App State won12% with the other result2.6-point differenceDuke playoff chance
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Impact 5
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Navy
Final ยท South Florida 38โ€“41 NavyWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Navy won, thinning out the at-large competition for Duke's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection14% if Navy won12% with the other result2.5-point differenceDuke playoff chance
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Impact 6
Boise State
at
Rooted for
San Diego State
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“17 San Diego StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

San Diego State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Duke's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection13% if San Diego State won12% with the other result1.2-point differenceDuke playoff chance
51 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Duke, then Clemson, Boston College, NC State, App State, Navy, San Diego State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.