Duke Blue Devils

4–3 · 3–1 ACC

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

Duke beat Clemson. Playoff odds moved from 4% to 10%.

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ACC Network

ACC title-game chanceEntering13%Win38%Loss4%

Duke

Duke 29%Clemson 71%

Clemson

Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN2

Impact 1

Virginia

at

Rooted for

California

Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if California won12% with the other result4.5-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance

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The CW Network

Impact 2

Louisville

at

Rooted for

Virginia Tech

Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.0-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Virginia Tech won13% with the other result4-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 3

Georgia Tech

at

Rooted for

NC State

Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓

Projected 3.4-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection16% if NC State won12% with the other result3.4-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 4

Miami

at

Rooted for

SMU

Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWish granted ✓

Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

Miami lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection15% if SMU won12% with the other result2.2-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 5

Rooted for

Wake Forest

at

Florida State

Final · Wake Forest 7–42 Florida StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Florida State won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Wake Forest won13% with the other result2.1-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance

46 other games had little impact

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

Tulane at UTSA · ESPN

Memphis at Rice · ESPN2

North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC

Penn State at Ohio State · FOX

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

UAB at UConn · CBSSN

Army at Air Force · CBS

Navy at North Texas · ESPN2

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

New Mexico at UNLV

Georgia at Florida · ABC

Indiana at Maryland · CBS

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network

Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Fresno State at Boise State · FS1

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network

Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.