🏈 Fan Watch

Duke Blue Devils

4–3 · 3–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
The Week 9 recap

Duke was off. Playoff odds moved from 3% to 4%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Duke wanted
…
…
The CW Network
Impact 1
SMU
at
Rooted for
Wake Forest
Final · SMU 12–13 Wake ForestWish granted ✓
Projected 6.6-point title-game boost

SMU lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection18% if Wake Forest won11% with the other result6.6-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 2
Rooted for
Syracuse
at
Georgia Tech
Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.8-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Syracuse won12% with the other result3.8-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 3
Rooted for
NC State
at
Pittsburgh
Final · NC State 34–53 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.8-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if NC State won12% with the other result3.8-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 4
Rooted for
Boston College
at
Louisville
Final · Boston College 24–38 LouisvilleWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.4-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Boston College won13% with the other result3.4-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 5
Rooted for
Stanford
at
Miami
Final · Stanford 7–42 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.7-point title-game boost

Miami won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Stanford won13% with the other result2.7-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 6
Rooted for
California
at
Virginia Tech
Final · California 34–42 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Virginia Tech won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if California won12% with the other result2.5-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 7
Virginia
at
Rooted for
North Carolina
Final · Virginia 17–16 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if North Carolina won12% with the other result2.4-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
46 other games had little impact
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
UCLA at Indiana · FOX
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+
Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+
UConn at Rice · ESPN+
Utah State at New Mexico
Alabama at South Carolina · ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Illinois at Washington · BTN
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network
BYU at Iowa State · FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Wisconsin at Oregon · FS1
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN
The rooting list was:Duke is off, then Wake Forest, Syracuse, NC State, Boston College, Stanford, California, North Carolina.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.