🏈 Fan Watch

Duke Blue Devils

5–3 · 4–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

Duke lost to UConn. Playoff odds moved from 10% to 12%.

Your game

Duke at UConn
…
…
CBSSN
playoff chanceEntering10%Win14%Loss6%
Duke
Duke 48%UConn 52%
UConn
Final · Duke 34–37 UConnWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Duke wanted
…
…
ESPN2
Impact 1
Rooted for
California
at
Louisville
Final · California 29–26 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Projected 10.2-point title-game boost

Louisville lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection47% if California won37% with the other result10-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 2
Rooted for
Wake Forest
at
Virginia
Final · Wake Forest 16–9 VirginiaWish granted ✓
Projected 9.0-point title-game boost

Virginia lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection45% if Wake Forest won36% with the other result9-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 3
Florida State
at
Rooted for
Clemson
Final · Florida State 10–24 ClemsonWish granted ✓
Projected 4.7-point title-game boost

Florida State lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection39% if Clemson won35% with the other result4.7-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN2
Impact 4
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Marshall
Final · James Madison 35–23 MarshallWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection12% if Marshall won10% with the other result2.4-point differenceDuke playoff chance
…
…
The CW Network
Impact 5
Stanford
at
Rooted for
North Carolina
Final · Stanford 15–20 North CarolinaWish granted ✓
Projected 2.6-point title-game boost

Stanford lost, improving Duke's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection38% if North Carolina won36% with the other result2.6-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 6
SMU
at
Rooted for
Boston College
Final · SMU 45–13 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

SMU won instead, so Duke did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection40% if Boston College won38% with the other result2.2-point differenceDuke ACC title-game chance
44 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Duke, then California, Wake Forest, Clemson, Marshall, North Carolina, Boston College.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.