🏈 Fan Watch

#24South Florida Bulls

7–2 · 4–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
The Week 12 recap

South Florida lost to Navy. Playoff odds moved from 33% to 2%.

Your game

South Florida at Navy
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ESPN2
American title-game chanceEntering75%Win93%Loss27%
South Florida
South Florida 72%Navy 28%
Navy
Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result South Florida wanted
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ESPN+
Impact 1
North Texas
at
Rooted for
UAB
Final · North Texas 53–24 UABWent the other way ✗
Projected 13.7-point title-game boost

North Texas won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection87% if UAB won73% with the other result14-point differenceSouth Florida American title-game chance
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ESPN+
Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida Atlantic
at
Tulane
Final · Florida Atlantic 24–35 TulaneWent the other way ✗
Projected 10.5-point title-game boost

Tulane won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection84% if Florida Atlantic won74% with the other result11-point differenceSouth Florida American title-game chance
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ESPN+
Impact 3
Rooted for
App State
at
James Madison
Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.6-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection38% if App State won33% with the other result5.6-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
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ESPNU
Impact 4
Rooted for
Memphis
at
East Carolina
Final · Memphis 27–31 East CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.1-point title-game boost

East Carolina won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection77% if Memphis won73% with the other result4.1-point differenceSouth Florida American title-game chance
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CBSSN
Impact 5
Boise State
at
Rooted for
San Diego State
Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Boise State lost again, helping keep them behind South Florida.

Entering-week projection34% if San Diego State won32% with the other result1.8-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 6
Virginia
at
Rooted for
Duke
Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if Duke won32% with the other result1.5-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
51 other games had little impact
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
The rooting list was:South Florida, then UAB, Florida Atlantic, App State, Memphis, San Diego State, Duke.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.