๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

South Florida Bulls

6โ€“2 ยท 3โ€“1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

South Florida beat UTSA. Playoff odds moved from 14% to 33%.

Your game

UTSA at South Florida
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American title-game chanceEntering45%Win58%Loss7%
UTSA
UTSA 24%South Florida 76%
South Florida
Final ยท UTSA 23โ€“55 South FloridaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result South Florida wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Charlotte
at
East Carolina
Final ยท Charlotte 22โ€“48 East CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.3-point title-game boost

East Carolina won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Charlotte won45% with the other result5.3-point differenceSouth Florida American title-game chance
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Impact 2
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Marshall
Final ยท James Madison 35โ€“23 MarshallWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Marshall won13% with the other result3-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
48 other games had little impact
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
SMU at Boston College ยท ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Missouri State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia ยท ESPN
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:South Florida, then Charlotte, Marshall.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.