🏈 Fan Watch

South Florida Bulls

6–2 · 3–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
The Week 10 recap

South Florida was off. Playoff odds moved from 11% to 14%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result South Florida wanted
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ESPN2
Impact 1
Memphis
at
Rooted for
Rice
Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗
Projected 8.5-point title-game boost

Memphis won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if Rice won45% with the other result8.5-point differenceSouth Florida American title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Tulane
at
Rooted for
UTSA
Final · Tulane 26–48 UTSAWish granted ✓
Projected 6.2-point title-game boost

Tulane lost, improving South Florida's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection49% if UTSA won43% with the other result6.2-point differenceSouth Florida American title-game chance
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FS1
Impact 3
Rooted for
Fresno State
at
Boise State
Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWish granted ✓
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Boise State lost again, helping keep them behind South Florida.

Entering-week projection14% if Fresno State won11% with the other result2.8-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 4
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Texas State
Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection13% if Texas State won10% with the other result2.7-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 5
Rooted for
Navy
at
North Texas
Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so South Florida did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection13% if Navy won11% with the other result1.8-point differenceSouth Florida playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
Miami at SMU · ESPN
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:South Florida is off, then Rice, UTSA, Fresno State, Texas State, Navy.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.