๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Liberty Flames

1โ€“3 ยท 0โ€“1 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Liberty lost to Old Dominion. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Your game

Liberty at Old Dominion
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CUSA title-game chanceEntering15%Win16%Loss14%
Liberty
Liberty 28%Old Dominion 72%
Old Dominion
Final ยท Liberty 7โ€“21 Old DominionWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Liberty wanted
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Impact 1
Louisiana Tech
at
Rooted for
UTEP
Final ยท Louisiana Tech 30โ€“11 UTEPWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.9-point title-game boost

Louisiana Tech won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if UTEP won14% with the other result2.9-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 2
Western Kentucky
at
Rooted for
Missouri State
Final ยท Western Kentucky 27โ€“22 Missouri StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

Western Kentucky won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Missouri State won14% with the other result2.2-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Liberty, then UTEP, Missouri State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.