๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Liberty Flames

1โ€“1 ยท 0โ€“1 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 3 ยท 2025
The Week 3 recap

Liberty lost to Bowling Green. Playoff odds moved from 1% to <1%.

Your game

Liberty at Bowling Green
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CUSA title-game chanceEntering28%Win29%Loss26%
Liberty
Liberty 47%Bowling Green 53%
Bowling Green
Final ยท Liberty 13โ€“23 Bowling GreenWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Liberty wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
New Mexico State
at
Louisiana Tech
Final ยท New Mexico State 14โ€“49 Louisiana TechWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Louisiana Tech won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if New Mexico State won27% with the other result2.5-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
SMU
at
Missouri State
Final ยท SMU 28โ€“10 Missouri StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

Missouri State lost, improving Liberty's place in the Conference USA standings.

Entering-week projection28% if SMU won26% with the other result2-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
44 other games had little impact
Florida Atlantic at Florida International ยท ESPN+
NC State at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Colorado at Houston ยท ESPN
Kansas State at Arizona ยท FOX
New Mexico at UCLA ยท BTN
Wisconsin at Alabama ยท ABC
Oklahoma at Temple ยท ESPN2
Oregon at Northwestern ยท FOX
Central Michigan at Michigan ยท BTN
Clemson at Georgia Tech ยท ESPN
Memphis at Troy ยท ESPNU
Buffalo at Kent State ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Louisiana at Missouri ยท ESPN+
UConn at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Georgia at Tennessee ยท ABC
USC at Purdue ยท CBS
Oregon State at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Washington State at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Pittsburgh at West Virginia ยท ESPN
Iowa State at Arkansas State ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Texas ยท SEC Network
South Florida at Miami ยท The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at Nevada
Arkansas at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Ohio at Ohio State ยท Peacock
Western Michigan at Illinois ยท FS1
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ยท ACC Network
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
App State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky ยท ESPNU
Florida at LSU ยท ABC
Texas A&M at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Massachusetts at Iowa ยท BTN
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Vanderbilt at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Duke at Tulane ยท ESPN2
Utah at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
Navy at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Akron at UAB ยท ESPN+
Air Force at Utah State ยท FS1
Minnesota at California ยท ESPN
Boston College at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Texas State at Arizona State ยท TNT
The rooting list was:Liberty, then New Mexico State, SMU.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.