๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Liberty Flames

4โ€“4 ยท 3โ€“1 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

Liberty lost to Missouri State. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Your game

Missouri State at Liberty
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CUSA title-game chanceEntering40%Win48%Loss10%
Missouri State
Missouri State 20%Liberty 80%
Liberty
Final ยท Missouri State 21โ€“17 LibertyWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Liberty wanted
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Impact 1
Kennesaw State
at
Rooted for
New Mexico State
Final ยท Kennesaw State 24โ€“21 New Mexico StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 14.0-point title-game boost

Kennesaw State won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if New Mexico State won35% with the other result14-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 2
Jacksonville State
at
Rooted for
UTEP
Final ยท Jacksonville State 30โ€“27 UTEPWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.0-point title-game boost

Jacksonville State won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if UTEP won39% with the other result5-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Louisiana Tech
at
Delaware
Final ยท Louisiana Tech 24โ€“25 DelawareWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

Delaware won instead, so Liberty did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection41% if Louisiana Tech won39% with the other result2.2-point differenceLiberty CUSA title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
SMU at Boston College ยท ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
James Madison at Marshall ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia ยท ESPN
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Liberty, then New Mexico State, UTEP, Louisiana Tech.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.