🏈 Fan Watch

Toledo Rockets

4–3 · 2–2 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
The Week 9 recap

Toledo lost to Washington State. Playoff odds moved from 1% to <1%.

Your game

Toledo at Washington State
…
…
The CW Network
MAC title-game chanceEntering19%Win20%Loss18%
Toledo
Toledo 68%Washington State 32%
Washington State
Final · Toledo 7–28 Washington StateWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Toledo wanted
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 1
Rooted for
Akron
at
Buffalo
Final · Akron 24–16 BuffaloWish granted ✓
Projected 9.0-point title-game boost

Buffalo lost, improving Toledo's place in the Mid-American standings.

Entering-week projection28% if Akron won19% with the other result9-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
…
…
CBSSN
Impact 2
Ohio
at
Rooted for
Eastern Michigan
Final · Ohio 28–21 Eastern MichiganWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.8-point title-game boost

Ohio won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection24% if Eastern Michigan won19% with the other result5.8-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 3
Bowling Green
at
Rooted for
Kent State
Final · Bowling Green 21–24 Kent StateWish granted ✓
Projected 3.2-point title-game boost

Bowling Green lost, improving Toledo's place in the Mid-American standings.

Entering-week projection22% if Kent State won19% with the other result3.2-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 4
Western Michigan
at
Rooted for
Miami (OH)
Final · Western Michigan 17–26 Miami (OH)Wish granted ✓
Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

Western Michigan lost, improving Toledo's place in the Mid-American standings.

Entering-week projection20% if Miami (OH) won17% with the other result3-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 5
Massachusetts
at
Rooted for
Central Michigan
Final · Massachusetts 13–38 Central MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 2.9-point title-game boost

Massachusetts lost, improving Toledo's place in the Mid-American standings.

Entering-week projection20% if Central Michigan won17% with the other result2.9-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
California at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
UCLA at Indiana · FOX
SMU at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Syracuse at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Virginia at North Carolina · ACC Network
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
UConn at Rice · ESPN+
Utah State at New Mexico
Alabama at South Carolina · ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Illinois at Washington · BTN
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
BYU at Iowa State · FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Wisconsin at Oregon · FS1
Stanford at Miami · ESPN
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Boston College at Louisville · ACC Network
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN
The rooting list was:Toledo, then Akron, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Central Michigan.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.