Toledo Rockets

6–4 · 4–2 MID-AMERICAN

In the books

WEEK 13 · 2025

The Week 13 recap

Toledo beat Ball State. Playoff odds moved from 5% to <1%.

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ESPN+

MAC title-game chanceEntering62%Win64%Loss<1%

Ball State

Ball State 2%Toledo 98%

Toledo

Final · Ball State 9–38 ToledoWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN2

Impact 1

Western Michigan

at

Rooted for

Northern Illinois

Final · Western Michigan 35–19 Northern IllinoisWent the other way ✗

Projected 32.4-point title-game boost

Western Michigan won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if Northern Illinois won46% with the other result32-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 2

Miami (OH)

at

Rooted for

Buffalo

Final · Miami (OH) 37–20 BuffaloWent the other way ✗

Projected 30.1-point title-game boost

Miami (OH) won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Buffalo won48% with the other result30-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance

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CBSSN

Impact 3

Rooted for

Massachusetts

at

Ohio

Final · Massachusetts 14–42 OhioWent the other way ✗

Projected 8.3-point title-game boost

Ohio won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Massachusetts won62% with the other result8.3-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance

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ESPNU

Impact 4

Central Michigan

at

Rooted for

Kent State

Final · Central Michigan 28–16 Kent StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.6-point title-game boost

Central Michigan won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Kent State won61% with the other result4.6-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance

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ESPN+

Impact 5

Rooted for

Washington State

at

James Madison

Final · Washington State 20–24 James MadisonWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if Washington State won4% with the other result2.8-point differenceToledo playoff chance

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ESPNU

Impact 6

North Texas

at

Rooted for

Rice

Final · North Texas 56–24 RiceWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection6% if Rice won5% with the other result1.9-point differenceToledo playoff chance

53 other games had little impact

Akron at Bowling Green · ESPNU

Louisiana at Arkansas State · ESPN

Florida State at NC State · ESPN

Hawai'i at UNLV · FS1

Missouri at Oklahoma · ABC

Minnesota at Northwestern · BTN

Rutgers at Ohio State · FOX

Louisville at SMU · ESPN2

Miami at Virginia Tech · ESPN

Delaware at Wake Forest · ACC Network

Kansas at Iowa State · FS1

Tulsa at Army · CBSSN

Charlotte at Georgia · SEC Network

Baylor at Arizona · TNT

Old Dominion at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Missouri State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+

Nevada at Wyoming

Marshall at App State · ESPN+

UConn at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Liberty at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+

Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

New Mexico State at UTEP · ESPN+

South Florida at UAB · ESPN+

Arkansas at Texas · ABC

Kentucky at Vanderbilt · ESPN

USC at Oregon · CBS

Michigan State at Iowa · FS1

Duke at North Carolina · ACC Network

Syracuse at Notre Dame · NBC

Jacksonville State at Florida International · CBSSN

Southern Miss at South Alabama · ESPN+

East Carolina at UTSA · ESPN+

Tulane at Temple · ESPNU

Michigan at Maryland · BTN

TCU at Houston · FOX

Oklahoma State at UCF · ESPN+

Kansas State at Utah · ESPN2

Georgia State at Troy · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina · SEC Network

UL Monroe at Texas State · ESPN+

Nebraska at Penn State · NBC

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech · ESPN

New Mexico at Air Force · CBSSN

Colorado State at Boise State · FS1

Tennessee at Florida · ABC

Illinois at Wisconsin · BTN

California at Stanford · ACC Network

Western Kentucky at LSU · SEC Network

BYU at Cincinnati · FOX

Arizona State at Colorado · ESPN2

Washington at UCLA · NBC

Utah State at Fresno State · CBSSN

San José State at San Diego State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.