๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Toledo Rockets

3โ€“2 ยท 1โ€“1 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 6 ยท 2025
The Week 6 recap

Toledo was off. Playoff odds moved from 2% to 3%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Toledo wanted
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Impact 1
Ohio
at
Rooted for
Ball State
Final ยท Ohio 14โ€“20 Ball StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 8.9-point title-game boost

Ohio lost, improving Toledo's place in the Mid-American standings.

Entering-week projection36% if Ball State won27% with the other result8.9-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Miami (OH)
at
Rooted for
Northern Illinois
Final ยท Miami (OH) 25โ€“14 Northern IllinoisWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.5-point title-game boost

Miami (OH) won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if Northern Illinois won25% with the other result5.5-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Eastern Michigan
at
Buffalo
Final ยท Eastern Michigan 30โ€“31 BuffaloWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.9-point title-game boost

Buffalo won instead, so Toledo did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if Eastern Michigan won27% with the other result3.9-point differenceToledo MAC title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Sam Houston at New Mexico State ยท CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida ยท ESPN2
New Mexico at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
West Virginia at BYU ยท ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia ยท ABC
Wisconsin at Michigan ยท FOX
Illinois at Purdue ยท BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh ยท ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina ยท ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor ยท ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati ยท ESPN2
Air Force at Navy ยท CBS
Army at UAB ยท ESPNU
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
UTSA at Temple ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona ยท truTV
Vanderbilt at Alabama ยท ABC
Texas at Florida ยท ESPN
Penn State at UCLA ยท CBS
Washington at Maryland ยท BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern ยท BTN
Oregon State at App State ยท ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU ยท ACC Network
Boise State at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Florida International at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron ยท ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma ยท SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska ยท FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston ยท ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy ยท ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice ยท ESPN+
Mississippi State at Texas A&M ยท SEC Network
Minnesota at Ohio State ยท NBC
Miami at Florida State ยท ABC
Colorado at TCU ยท FOX
Kansas at UCF ยท ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis ยท ESPNU
Duke at California ยท ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Toledo is off, then Ball State, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.