New Mexico Lobos

3–3 · 0–2 MOUNTAIN WEST

In the books

WEEK 8 · 2025

The Week 8 recap

New Mexico beat Nevada. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Your game

Nevada at New Mexico

…

FS1

MW title-game chanceEntering2%Win2%Loss<1%

Nevada

Nevada 16%New Mexico 84%

New Mexico

Final · Nevada 22–24 New MexicoWish granted ✓

Nothing else moves the path

the rest is background football

Nothing else meaningfully changes New Mexico's path. Watch the rest because it is football.

58 other games had little impact

New Mexico State at Liberty · CBSSN

Arkansas State at South Alabama · ESPN2

Florida International at Western Kentucky · ESPNU

Delaware at Jacksonville State · ESPN2

UTEP at Sam Houston · CBSSN

Tulsa at East Carolina · ESPN

Louisville at Miami · ESPN

Nebraska at Minnesota · FOX

San José State at Utah State · CBSSN

North Carolina at California · ESPN

LSU at Vanderbilt · ABC

Washington at Michigan · FOX

Georgia Tech at Duke · ESPN

UConn at Boston College · ACC Network

Arizona at Houston · FS1

Baylor at TCU · ESPN2

Army at Tulane · ESPNU

Central Michigan at Bowling Green · CBSSN

Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+

Oklahoma at South Carolina · SEC Network

West Virginia at UCF · TNT

Kent State at Toledo · ESPN+

Buffalo at Massachusetts · ESPN+

Purdue at Northwestern · BTN

Troy at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas A&M at Arkansas · ESPN

Ole Miss at Georgia · ABC

Ohio State at Wisconsin · CBS

Michigan State at Indiana · Peacock

SMU at Clemson · ACC Network

Wyoming at Air Force · CBSSN

UNLV at Boise State · FS1

Coastal Carolina at App State · ESPN+

Old Dominion at James Madison · ESPNU

Texas State at Marshall · ESPN+

Temple at Charlotte · ESPN+

UTSA at North Texas · ESPN+

Akron at Ball State · ESPN+

Northern Illinois at Ohio · ESPN+

Texas Tech at Arizona State · FOX

Memphis at UAB · ESPN2

Mississippi State at Florida · SEC Network

Southern Miss at Louisiana · ESPN+

Oregon at Rutgers · BTN

Washington State at Virginia · The CW Network

Texas at Kentucky · ESPN

Penn State at Iowa · Peacock

Maryland at UCLA · FS1

Hawai'i at Colorado State

Georgia State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Tennessee at Alabama · ABC

USC at Notre Dame · NBC

Pittsburgh at Syracuse · ACC Network

Florida Atlantic at South Florida · ESPNU

Missouri at Auburn · SEC Network

Utah at BYU · FOX

Cincinnati at Oklahoma State · ESPN2

Florida State at Stanford · ESPN

The rooting list was:New Mexico. Nothing else meaningfully moves the path.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.