🏈 Fan Watch

New Mexico Lobos

73 · 42 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
The Week 13 recap

New Mexico beat Air Force. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Your game

New Mexico at Air Force
MW title-game chanceEntering9%Win18%Loss0%
New Mexico
New Mexico 49%Air Force 51%
Air Force
Final · New Mexico 203 Air ForceWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result New Mexico wanted
Impact 1
Rooted for
Utah State
at
Fresno State
Final · Utah State 2817 Fresno StateWish granted ✓
Projected 10.7-point title-game boost

Fresno State lost, improving New Mexico's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection16% if Utah State won6% with the other result11-point differenceNew Mexico MW title-game chance
Impact 2
Rooted for
Colorado State
at
Boise State
Final · Colorado State 2149 Boise StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.6-point title-game boost

Boise State won instead, so New Mexico did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Colorado State won8% with the other result6.6-point differenceNew Mexico MW title-game chance
Impact 3
Rooted for
San José State
at
San Diego State
Final · San José State 325 San Diego StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.2-point title-game boost

San Diego State won instead, so New Mexico did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection12% if San José State won8% with the other result4.2-point differenceNew Mexico MW title-game chance
56 other games had little impact
Akron at Bowling Green · ESPNU
Massachusetts at Ohio · CBSSN
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois · ESPN2
Miami (OH) at Buffalo · ESPN2
Central Michigan at Kent State · ESPNU
Louisiana at Arkansas State · ESPN
Florida State at NC State · ESPN
Hawai'i at UNLV · FS1
Missouri at Oklahoma · ABC
Minnesota at Northwestern · BTN
Rutgers at Ohio State · FOX
Louisville at SMU · ESPN2
Miami at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Delaware at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Kansas at Iowa State · FS1
Tulsa at Army · CBSSN
Charlotte at Georgia · SEC Network
Washington State at James Madison · ESPN+
Baylor at Arizona · TNT
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Missouri State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Nevada at Wyoming
Ball State at Toledo · ESPN+
Marshall at App State · ESPN+
UConn at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Liberty at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
New Mexico State at UTEP · ESPN+
South Florida at UAB · ESPN+
Arkansas at Texas · ABC
Kentucky at Vanderbilt · ESPN
USC at Oregon · CBS
Michigan State at Iowa · FS1
Duke at North Carolina · ACC Network
Syracuse at Notre Dame · NBC
Jacksonville State at Florida International · CBSSN
Southern Miss at South Alabama · ESPN+
East Carolina at UTSA · ESPN+
Tulane at Temple · ESPNU
Michigan at Maryland · BTN
TCU at Houston · FOX
Oklahoma State at UCF · ESPN+
Kansas State at Utah · ESPN2
Georgia State at Troy · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina · SEC Network
UL Monroe at Texas State · ESPN+
Nebraska at Penn State · NBC
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Tennessee at Florida · ABC
Illinois at Wisconsin · BTN
California at Stanford · ACC Network
North Texas at Rice · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at LSU · SEC Network
BYU at Cincinnati · FOX
Arizona State at Colorado · ESPN2
Washington at UCLA · NBC
The rooting list was:New Mexico, then Utah State, Colorado State, San José State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.