Missouri State Bears
2–2 · 0–0 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
The Week 5 recap
Missouri State lost to Western Kentucky. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.
Your game
Western Kentucky at Missouri StateCUSA title-game chanceEntering8%Win14%Loss2%
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky 51%Missouri State 49%
Missouri State
Final · Western Kentucky 27–22 Missouri StateWent the other way ✗
Nothing else moves the path
the rest is background footballNothing else meaningfully changes Missouri State's path. Watch the rest because it is football.
50 other games had little impact
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas · ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
USC at Illinois · FOX
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh · ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M · ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Indiana at Iowa · Peacock
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia · ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State · NBC
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
The rooting list was:Missouri State. Nothing else meaningfully moves the path.
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.