๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Missouri State Bears

4โ€“3 ยท 2โ€“1 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 10 ยท 2025
The Week 10 recap

Missouri State beat Florida International. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Your game

Florida International at Missouri State
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CUSA title-game chanceEntering10%Win14%Loss1%
Florida International
Florida International 28%Missouri State 72%
Missouri State
Final ยท Florida International 21โ€“28 Missouri StateWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Missouri State wanted
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Impact 1
Jacksonville State
at
Rooted for
Middle Tennessee
Final ยท Jacksonville State 24โ€“21 Middle TennesseeWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.4-point title-game boost

Jacksonville State won instead, so Missouri State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if Middle Tennessee won9% with the other result4.4-point differenceMissouri State CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
New Mexico State
at
Western Kentucky
Final ยท New Mexico State 16โ€“35 Western KentuckyWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.9-point title-game boost

Western Kentucky won instead, so Missouri State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection12% if New Mexico State won10% with the other result2.9-point differenceMissouri State CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 3
Delaware
at
Rooted for
Liberty
Final ยท Delaware 30โ€“59 LibertyWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.6-point title-game boost

Delaware lost, improving Missouri State's place in the Conference USA standings.

Entering-week projection11% if Liberty won9% with the other result2.6-point differenceMissouri State CUSA title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
UTEP at Kennesaw State ยท ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State ยท ESPN2
Marshall at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA ยท ESPN
Memphis at Rice ยท ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse ยท ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech ยท CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas ยท ABC
Penn State at Ohio State ยท FOX
Rutgers at Illinois ยท NBC
Duke at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Miami at SMU ยท ESPN
UCF at Baylor ยท ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston ยท FS1
UAB at UConn ยท CBSSN
Army at Air Force ยท CBS
Navy at North Texas ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green ยท ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State ยท TNT
East Carolina at Temple ยท ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida ยท ABC
Indiana at Maryland ยท CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota ยท BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College ยท ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State ยท FOX
Fresno State at Boise State ยท FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Virginia at California ยท ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan ยท ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Michigan ยท BTN
Arizona at Colorado ยท FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee ยท ABC
USC at Nebraska ยท NBC
Washington State at Oregon State ยท CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State ยท ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy ยท ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah ยท ESPN
Hawai'i at San Josรฉ State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Missouri State, then Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Liberty.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.