Toledo Rockets
0–0 · 0–0 MID-AMERICAN
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
60%
MAC title game
41%
Win the MAC
1%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.9
Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-5 job: beat Ball State.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Toledo's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Toledo at Ball State
Your game. Beat Ball State and your playoff odds are 1%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.
Toledo 93%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Ohio at Kent State
Mid-American race: Ohio losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Ohio in week 13.
Ohio 90%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Mid-American race: Miami (OH) losing helps your spot in the standings; Bowling Green visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
Miami (OH) 76%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Mid-American race: Western Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; Buffalo visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.
Western Michigan 57%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Mid-American race: Eastern Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; Massachusetts visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Eastern Michigan 88%
50 more games that don't move your needle
Marshall at James Madison
Akron at Central Michigan
North Texas at Tulsa
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Penn State at Northwestern
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Alabama at Mississippi State
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
BYU at TCU
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
Texas Tech at Colorado
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
California at UNLV
Louisville at NC State
Miami at Clemson
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Purdue at Illinois
Ohio State at Iowa
Michigan at Minnesota
Maryland at Nebraska
Indiana at Rutgers
Washington at USC
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
Memphis at Charlotte
UTSA at Rice
Navy at Air Force
Temple at South Florida
San José State at Hawai'i
UTEP at New Mexico
Army at Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.