New Mexico Lobos
0–0 · 0–0 MOUNTAIN WEST
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
43%
MW title game
20%
Win the MW
<1%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 12.0
Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-1 job: beat Central Michigan.
If New Mexico wins out: 66% to win the MW, 0% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves New Mexico's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Your game. Win and your Mountain West title-game odds are 45%; lose and they fall to 36%.
New Mexico 80%
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT AUG 29
Hawai'i at Stanford
Mountain West race: Hawai'i losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Hawai'i in week 7.
Hawai'i 55%
Root for Stanford+2.8 pp title-game odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Wyoming at Colorado State
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Miami at Stanford · ESPN
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Texas State at Texas
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Western Michigan at Michigan
Ohio at Nebraska
Ball State at Ohio State
Boise State at Oregon
Marshall at Penn State
Washington State at Washington
Arkansas State at Memphis
Florida International at South Florida
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
East Carolina at Alabama · ABC
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
SMU at Florida State · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.