๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Troy Trojans

4โ€“2 ยท 2โ€“0 SUN BELT
In the books
WEEK 8 ยท 2025
The Week 8 recap

Troy beat UL Monroe. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Your game

Troy at UL Monroe
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Sun Belt title-game chanceEntering75%Win78%Loss58%
Troy
Troy 85%UL Monroe 15%
UL Monroe
Final ยท Troy 37โ€“14 UL MonroeWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Troy wanted
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Impact 1
Southern Miss
at
Rooted for
Louisiana
Final ยท Southern Miss 22โ€“10 LouisianaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 6.1-point title-game boost

Southern Miss won instead, so Troy did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection77% if Louisiana won71% with the other result6.1-point differenceTroy Sun Belt title-game chance
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Impact 2
Arkansas State
at
Rooted for
South Alabama
Final ยท Arkansas State 15โ€“14 South AlabamaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.3-point title-game boost

Arkansas State won instead, so Troy did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection76% if South Alabama won72% with the other result3.3-point differenceTroy Sun Belt title-game chance
56 other games had little impact
New Mexico State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Florida International at Western Kentucky ยท ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston ยท CBSSN
Tulsa at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Louisville at Miami ยท ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota ยท FOX
San Josรฉ State at Utah State ยท CBSSN
North Carolina at California ยท ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt ยท ABC
Washington at Michigan ยท FOX
Georgia Tech at Duke ยท ESPN
UConn at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Arizona at Houston ยท FS1
Baylor at TCU ยท ESPN2
Army at Tulane ยท ESPNU
Central Michigan at Bowling Green ยท CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
West Virginia at UCF ยท TNT
Kent State at Toledo ยท ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern ยท BTN
Texas A&M at Arkansas ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Georgia ยท ABC
Ohio State at Wisconsin ยท CBS
Michigan State at Indiana ยท Peacock
SMU at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force ยท CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State ยท FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State ยท ESPN+
Old Dominion at James Madison ยท ESPNU
Texas State at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas ยท ESPN+
Akron at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Arizona State ยท FOX
Memphis at UAB ยท ESPN2
Mississippi State at Florida ยท SEC Network
Oregon at Rutgers ยท BTN
Washington State at Virginia ยท The CW Network
Texas at Kentucky ยท ESPN
Penn State at Iowa ยท Peacock
Maryland at UCLA ยท FS1
Hawai'i at Colorado State
Georgia State at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Tennessee at Alabama ยท ABC
USC at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Pittsburgh at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Florida Atlantic at South Florida ยท ESPNU
Missouri at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Utah at BYU ยท FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico ยท FS1
Florida State at Stanford ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Troy, then Louisiana, South Alabama.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.