๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#20Arizona State Sun Devils

8โ€“3 ยท 6โ€“2 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 14 ยท 2025
The Week 14 recap

Arizona State lost to Arizona. Playoff odds moved from 6% to 0%.

Your game

Arizona at Arizona State
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playoff chanceEntering6%Win10%Loss<1%
Arizona
Arizona 39%Arizona State 61%
Arizona State
Final ยท Arizona 23โ€“7 Arizona StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Arizona State wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
UCF
at
BYU
Final ยท UCF 21โ€“41 BYUWent the other way โœ—
Projected 60.3-point title-game boost

BYU won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if UCF won<1% with the other result60-point differenceArizona State Big 12 title-game chance
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Impact 2
Texas Tech
at
Rooted for
West Virginia
Final ยท Texas Tech 49โ€“0 West VirginiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.7-point title-game boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection12% if West Virginia won6% with the other result5.7-point differenceArizona State Big 12 title-game chance
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Impact 3
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final ยท Ole Miss 38โ€“19 Mississippi StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection8% if Mississippi State won6% with the other result2-point differenceArizona State playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final ยท LSU 13โ€“17 OklahomaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if LSU won6% with the other result1.8-point differenceArizona State playoff chance
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Impact 5
Utah
at
Rooted for
Kansas
Final ยท Utah 31โ€“21 KansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if Kansas won6% with the other result1.5-point differenceArizona State playoff chance
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Impact 6
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final ยท Alabama 27โ€“20 AuburnWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if Auburn won6% with the other result1.5-point differenceArizona State playoff chance
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Impact 7
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final ยท Oregon 26โ€“14 WashingtonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Arizona State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if Washington won6% with the other result1.5-point differenceArizona State playoff chance
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Impact 8
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final ยท Ohio State 27โ€“9 MichiganWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Arizona State's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection6% if Ohio State won5% with the other result1.2-point differenceArizona State playoff chance
58 other games had little impact
Miami at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN2
Navy at Memphis ยท ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska ยท CBS
Ohio at Buffalo ยท ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois ยท CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State ยท FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech ยท ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico ยท CBSSN
Temple at North Texas ยท ESPN
Boise State at Utah State ยท CBS
Texas A&M at Texas ยท ABC
Indiana at Purdue ยท NBC
Kentucky at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Houston at Baylor ยท TNT
Colorado at Kansas State ยท FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) ยท CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State ยท ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse ยท The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State ยท ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Vanderbilt at Tennessee ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Minnesota ยท FS1
Penn State at Rutgers ยท BTN
Wake Forest at Duke ยท ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU ยท FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Army at UTSA ยท ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida State at Florida ยท ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State ยท FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia ยท ESPN
Rice at South Florida ยท ESPN+
UCLA at USC ยท NBC
Northwestern at Illinois ยท FOX
North Carolina at NC State ยท ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane ยท ESPNU
SMU at California ยท ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada ยท CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford ยท ESPN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Arizona State, then UCF, West Virginia, Mississippi State, LSU, Kansas, Auburn, Washington, Ohio State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.