๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#25Cincinnati Bearcats

7โ€“2 ยท 5โ€“1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Cincinnati lost to Arizona. Playoff odds moved from 2% to <1%.

Your game

Arizona at Cincinnati
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Big 12 title-game chanceEntering15%Win23%Loss3%
Arizona
Arizona 38%Cincinnati 62%
Cincinnati
Final ยท Arizona 30โ€“24 CincinnatiWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Cincinnati wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
Utah
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final ยท Utah 55โ€“28 BaylorWent the other way โœ—
Projected 10.8-point title-game boost

Utah won instead, so Cincinnati did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection24% if Baylor won13% with the other result11-point differenceCincinnati Big 12 title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
Rooted for
West Virginia
at
Arizona State
Final ยท West Virginia 23โ€“25 Arizona StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.6-point title-game boost

Arizona State won instead, so Cincinnati did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if West Virginia won15% with the other result5.6-point differenceCincinnati Big 12 title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 3
Rooted for
UCF
at
Texas Tech
Final ยท UCF 9โ€“48 Texas TechWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Cincinnati did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if UCF won15% with the other result2.5-point differenceCincinnati Big 12 title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 4
Rooted for
TCU
at
BYU
Final ยท TCU 13โ€“44 BYUWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

BYU won instead, so Cincinnati did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if TCU won15% with the other result2.2-point differenceCincinnati Big 12 title-game chance
53 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
South Florida at Navy ยท ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Cincinnati, then Baylor, West Virginia, UCF, TCU.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.