🏈 Fan Watch

San José State Spartans

35 · 22 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

San José State lost to Air Force. Playoff odds moved from <1% to 0%.

Your game

Air Force at San José State
MW title-game chanceEntering3%Win5%Loss<1%
Air Force
Air Force 32%San José State 68%
San José State
Final · Air Force 2616 San José StateWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result San José State wanted
Impact 1
UNLV
at
Rooted for
Colorado State
Final · UNLV 4210 Colorado StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.9-point title-game boost

UNLV won instead, so San José State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection6% if Colorado State won3% with the other result2.9-point differenceSan José State MW title-game chance
TV TBA
Impact 2
San Diego State
at
Rooted for
Hawai'i
Final · San Diego State 638 Hawai'iWish granted ✓
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

San Diego State lost, improving San José State's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection5% if Hawai'i won3% with the other result2-point differenceSan José State MW title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
The rooting list was:San José State, then Colorado State, Hawai'i.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.