๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

San Diego State Aztecs

7โ€“1 ยท 4โ€“0 PAC-12
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

San Diego State lost to Hawai'i. Playoff odds moved from 7% to <1%.

Your game

San Diego State at Hawai'i
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TV TBA
Pac-12 title-game chanceEntering71%Win81%Loss46%
San Diego State
San Diego State 71%Hawai'i 29%
Hawai'i
Final ยท San Diego State 6โ€“38 Hawai'iWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result San Diego State wanted
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Impact 1
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Marshall
Final ยท James Madison 35โ€“23 MarshallWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so San Diego State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Marshall won6% with the other result2.3-point differenceSan Diego State playoff chance
49 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
SMU at Boston College ยท ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Missouri State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia ยท ESPN
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
The rooting list was:San Diego State, then Marshall.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.