๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

7โ€“2 ยท 5โ€“1 CONFERENCE USA
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

Western Kentucky was off. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Western Kentucky wanted
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Impact 1
Kennesaw State
at
Rooted for
New Mexico State
Final ยท Kennesaw State 24โ€“21 New Mexico StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 13.7-point title-game boost

Kennesaw State won instead, so Western Kentucky did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if New Mexico State won19% with the other result14-point differenceWestern Kentucky CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Missouri State
at
Liberty
Final ยท Missouri State 21โ€“17 LibertyWish granted โœ“
Projected 10.9-point title-game boost

Liberty lost, improving Western Kentucky's place in the Conference USA standings.

Entering-week projection33% if Missouri State won22% with the other result11-point differenceWestern Kentucky CUSA title-game chance
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Impact 3
Jacksonville State
at
Rooted for
UTEP
Final ยท Jacksonville State 30โ€“27 UTEPWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.5-point title-game boost

Jacksonville State won instead, so Western Kentucky did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if UTEP won23% with the other result5.5-point differenceWestern Kentucky CUSA title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
SMU at Boston College ยท ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
James Madison at Marshall ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia ยท ESPN
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Western Kentucky is off, then New Mexico State, Missouri State, UTEP.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.