๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

7โ€“3 ยท 4โ€“2 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Hawai'i was off. Playoff odds moved from <1% to <1%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Hawai'i wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Boise State
at
San Diego State
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“17 San Diego StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.1-point title-game boost

San Diego State won instead, so Hawai'i did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Boise State won12% with the other result3.1-point differenceHawai'i MW title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Wyoming
at
Fresno State
Final ยท Wyoming 3โ€“24 Fresno StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

Fresno State won instead, so Hawai'i did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Wyoming won13% with the other result3-point differenceHawai'i MW title-game chance
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Impact 3
Utah State
at
Rooted for
UNLV
Final ยท Utah State 26โ€“29 UNLVWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

Utah State lost, improving Hawai'i's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection14% if UNLV won12% with the other result2.2-point differenceHawai'i MW title-game chance
55 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
South Florida at Navy ยท ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Hawai'i is off, then Boise State, Wyoming, UNLV.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.