UNLV Rebels
0–0 · 0–0 MOUNTAIN WEST
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
71%
MW title game
49%
Win the MW
2%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.9
Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-5 job: beat California.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves UNLV's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 3
California at UNLV
Your game. Beat California and your playoff odds are 2%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.
UNLV 84%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT OCT 3
UTEP at New Mexico
Mountain West race: New Mexico losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play New Mexico in week 11.
New Mexico 88%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
San José State at Hawai'i
Mountain West race: Hawai'i losing helps your spot in the standings; San José State visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
Hawai'i 86%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Navy at Air Force
Mountain West race: Air Force losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Air Force in week 7.
Navy 57%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Marshall at James Madison
Marshall winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
James Madison 92%
50 more games that don't move your needle
North Texas at Tulsa
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Penn State at Northwestern
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Alabama at Mississippi State
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
BYU at TCU
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
Texas Tech at Colorado
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
Louisville at NC State
Miami at Clemson
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Purdue at Illinois
Ohio State at Iowa
Michigan at Minnesota
Maryland at Nebraska
Indiana at Rutgers
Washington at USC
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
Memphis at Charlotte
UTSA at Rice
Temple at South Florida
Akron at Central Michigan
Toledo at Ball State
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Ohio at Kent State
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Army at Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.